It’s A Minimum Security Federal Prison Camp — In Texas, For Her…

She will, by order of USDC Judge Davila, serve her bid in Texas. About a two hour drive east of UT Austin… at the federal Prison Camp called Bryan.

If BoP accepts this arrangement, she should be able to have at least monthly family visits, of about six hours each, with her kids and/or her partner (and her parents, on alternating months) — in a common area with minimal physical touching. Some hugs, but that is about it.

And she will be… almost 50, when she is released.

The reason I bring this up is that it contrasts with Martin Shkreli, who started his time fairly immediately after his conviction — and while getting about 70% the time she got, he was out before he turned 40.

[Still, her conditions of confinement will be far more lax than Martin’s were (Spartan, but very much dorm-like living) — with a fair bit of green space to wander about in, for about an hour a day. But nothing at all to compare with the wooded Northern California estate at left where she previously lived during the Theranos years, with Mr. Balwani.]

Ms. Holmes’ overall path to prison has been marked by numerous delaying tactics (of her own design). And Condor predicts there is essentially zero chance of a successful appeal, on either the conviction or the sentence. She and Martin are essentially the same age.

So… she will be in her fifties now, before she really gets to spend full time with her then high school aged kids.

Damn.

[U: 11-Plus Years. Her Son, Will, Will Be In High-School By Then.] Holmes’ BIG Day Is Finally… Here!

I’ll have more here later (around 1 PM Eastern). She’s arrived at the courthouse, looking about six months pregnant, at this point. Might deliver by January — but that’s a guess.

But for now, use this to post your guesses at sentence length and restitution order amounts.

Mine are on record as 12 years and ~$400 million. [At right, is John Carreyou — in the luminous, but clear dawn light — in San Jose (signing fans’ books, this morning), outside the courthouse… to be sure he gets a seat in the courtroom — at 10 AM PST.]

And do take Billy’s quiz.

Those answers should be posted right after the hearing wraps!

She gets over 11 years. Surrender date: April 27, 2022.

And here is Billy’s fine answer key. Damn — I barely scored a B+, at 88%. Heh.

Onward!

[U: Quiz Link!] As We Did With Mr. Shkreli About Six Years Ago, There Will Be A Trivia Quiz Tomorrow — As To Ms. Holmes!

This one (as it was five and three-fourths years ago!) is 100% courtesy of BillyTheKid!

Click to access elizabeth-holmes-pop-quiz.pdf

There are at least three questions as to which I will be solely guessing! I have no idea as to those three, but I will not google. Heh.

I will post it in the morning, and All entries are due not more less than fifteen minutes after her sentence is handed down.

It will be a *.pdf file format that you may fill in and submit — or you may post your answers in the comments, as a numbered set of answers / comments.

Should be very good fun!

Braggin’ rights are all the winners will get, though — I’m afraid.

And… feel free to make a guess at sentence length, and restitution order amounts, if you like — as the last or first, un-numbered, answer to the quiz!

Onward, to Friday!

Team Holmes’ Reply — On The 15 Year Sentence Suggestion From The Government…

I’ll try to provide a live video link to the hearing on Friday, here — as I do know that at least audio/video Zoom style streams will be broadcast by local California TV outlets.

In any event, to complete the record — here is Elizabeth Holmes’ reply to the sentencing memo of the government.

In a fascinating twist toward the end of her arguments, she suggests (falsely) that the government argued that Billy Evans should have married her (since they will now have two children together) — largely so his family wealth could help pay her debts and fines.

Candidly, I saw no such suggestion in any of the government’s papers. I think it a ruse, to try and win sympathy from the able USDC Judge Davila, in San Jose. But I think it will fall on deaf ears.

She is likely to get at least 12 years — that is my final guess.

Onward, to Friday morning on the West Coast.

[Sadly, I’d now expect a full-on melt-down, with lots of wailing, screaming and crying, in an almost psychotic-style break, when she hears she will spend more than a decade behind bars… on the live camera feed (all of which may be performative art, for her remaining fan grrls). That will probably at around 1:00 PM Pacific, or 4:00 PM Eastern — after three or more hours of hearing arguments, back and forth.]

Out.

Her Defense Cost ~$30 Million: Corrected Memo Filed By AUSAs In Holmes Case.

Well… she did get a very fine set of lawyers — and her defense’s effort was truly… first rate.

But on the concluding page of the sentencing memo, as corrected for Friday’s 10 AM PST hearing, the government notes that the able USDC Judge ought to look carefully at the claims of being essentially destitute, and unable to pay her victims back… as he considers the fine and restitution order which he will likely also enter on Friday, thus:

…[I]t appears that Holmes has modest assets outweighed by $450,000 in “loan[s] for SEC Settlement” and a liability for legal fees in excess of $30 million. The PSR notes it is unknown whether any third parties, guarantors, or others are also liable on or expected to pay the legal fees. The PSR also notes that Holmes’ family appears to have substantial assets and that Holmes is managing her affairs…
…to avoid subjecting their assets to any judgment in this case. Before foregoing a fine, the Court should assure itself that such liabilities are current and genuine and consider whether Holmes’ management of her affairs reflects a genuine desire to make her investors whole….

Those are some serious $1,400 an hour lawyers… indeed. I’d bet that Martin Shkreli paid under $3 million, all in — or one tenth of what Ms. Holmes apparently says she’s paid.

Wow.

On… to Friday!

The Government Rightly Seeks 15 Years In Prison — Ten Times What Holmes Asked For.

She asked for 18 months in at home, or halfway house settings — the government rightly asks for ten times that amount — in prison, thus:

…The Sentencing Guidelines appropriately recognize that Holmes’ crimes were extraordinarily serious, among the most substantial white collar offenses Silicon Valley or any other District has seen.

According to the Presentence Investigation Report (“PSR”), they yield a recommended custodial sentence beyond the statutory maximum. The factors set forth in 18 U.S.C. § 3553 — notably the nature and circumstances of the offense, the need for the sentence to reflect the seriousness of the offense and promote respect for the law, and the need for both specific deterrence and general deterrence — demand a significant custodial sentence. With these factors in mind, the government respectfully recommends a sentence of 180 months in custody. The Court should also order Holmes to serve a three-year term of supervised release, pay full restitution to her investors (including Walgreens and Safeway), and pay the required special assessment for each count….

[The guidelines’] range assumes a sentence of 240 months’ imprisonment (the statutory maximum) would be imposed for each of the four counts of conviction, run consecutively. Id.

Considering the extensiveness of Holmes’ fraud, the sentencing factors support a sentence of 180 months’ imprisonment, as it would reflect the seriousness of the offenses, promote respect for the law, provide for just punishment for the offenses, and deter Holmes and others….

In a separate but closely related fraud, defendants targeted patients who paid for and relied upon Theranos’ testing services to investigate and diagnose health conditions and make high-stakes decisions about medical care….

So, the government points out that it COULD be 80 years (4 counts times 20 years), if the max was applied. By comparison, Mr. Shkreli’s max was 39 years. More soon, with a new graphic of the table of investor losses. Hint: it is over 1,000 times higher than Martin’s highest estimates by the AUSAs.

I delayed here — struggling a bit about whether, even though it is a public document in a court filing, I should blur out the actual investors’ names, at above right.

I’ve decided this is important: real people lost hundreds of millions of dollars, and human patients’ lives were endangered.

Fifteen is appropriate — but I expect 12, minimum.

That is all.

Elizabeth Holmes (Unrealistically!) Seeks 18 Months Of Home Confinement / Work Release / Probation…

I will say more, once the government’s position is filed about seven days away from her November 18 sentencing date.

But for now, these 74 pages do her very little good, as a legal matter. They paint a picture that is emotionally sympathetic, true. But inexplicably, large portions of what is simply US Code statutory law… is blacked out in the filing.

I cannot imagine why saying a given code section should NOT apply would be privacy-protected. I think she’s just embarrassed by the truth of the scheme’s multi-decade incarceration recommendation. Good luck with that. [It matters, in the real world, as well that many of those she conned were… very prominent US ex-governmental figures.]

And so, I think her legal team did her a disservice here, in not grappling directly with how vast the losses, and frauds, over many years were — and how she directed it all. The government certainly will make that crystal clear — and this is no answer to it.

In sum, it is not rational to think that USDC Judge Davila (who saw all the evidence come in)… would essentially throw away ALL the provisions of the federal sentencing guidelines. No doubt, portions of those long derided laws… result in unfairly long sentences. But almost everyone gets those long sentences. Do consider here that Martin Shkreli (a case they do not mention, since it isn’t favorable to the defense team) — who stole/lost about one-ten-thousandth of what Ms. Holmes did… got around seven years, all in federal prison. That is a relevant marker.

These laws must mean something — and the argument that all of Silicon Valley is replete with liars and cheats (not yet caught) is no excuse. But she says it is.

No, there is almost no chance the government will ask for less than 20 years.

And Condor sez… they will get probably about 85% of what they suggest.

Now you know.

When the government files its documents — this weekend or on Monday — I’ll have more to say.

Namaste….